Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CSKA Sofia II vs Bansko — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II
FT
2 – 0
Bansko
Bansko
5/10/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - Promotion Round - 4Sportna baza Pancharevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

CSKA Sofia II58%
×Draw23%
Bansko18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia II
1.75
Bansko
0.86

CSKA Sofia II creates 103% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 129 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia II
2.15
Bansko
0.98

allows per match

CSKA Sofia II
0.74
Bansko
1.36

finishing

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par
Bansko+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia II ↓

Bansko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia II or draw
82%
CSKA Sofia II or Bansko
77%
Draw or Bansko
42%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+
33%
Bansko wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals
83%
CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals
52%
CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals
25%
Bansko 1+ goals
58%
Bansko 2+ goals
21%
Bansko 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)
76%
Bansko (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia II at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Bansko away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia II attack 2.15 + Bansko defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.75

Bansko attack 0.98 + CSKA Sofia II defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CSKA Sofia II scores more
58%
level
23%
Bansko scores more
18%

CSKA Sofia II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CSKA Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: CSKA Sofia II 2–0 Bansko

CSKA Sofia II beat Bansko 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on May 10, 2023.

The match was played at Sportna baza Pancharevo in Sofia.