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CSKA Pomir vs Ravshan Zafarobod — Vysshaya Liga 2019

CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ravshan Zafarobod
Ravshan Zafarobod
10/2/2022Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 16Stadion Politekhnikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

CSKA Pomir54%
×Draw23%
Ravshan Zafarobod23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Pomir
1.81
Ravshan Zafarobod
1.08

CSKA Pomir creates 68% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 11 away

creates per match

CSKA Pomir
1.44
Ravshan Zafarobod
1.00

allows per match

CSKA Pomir
1.17
Ravshan Zafarobod
2.18

finishing

CSKA Pomir+0.00on par
Ravshan Zafarobod+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Pomir ↓

Ravshan Zafarobod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CSKA Pomir or draw
77%
CSKA Pomir or Ravshan Zafarobod
77%
Draw or Ravshan Zafarobod
46%

Winning margin

CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
31%
Ravshan Zafarobod wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
84%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
54%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
27%
Ravshan Zafarobod 1+ goals
66%
Ravshan Zafarobod 2+ goals
29%
Ravshan Zafarobod 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
71%
Ravshan Zafarobod (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Pomir at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.17 · 99 matches

Ravshan Zafarobod away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Pomir attack 1.44 + Ravshan Zafarobod defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.81

Ravshan Zafarobod attack 1.00 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CSKA Pomir scores more
54%
level
23%
Ravshan Zafarobod scores more
23%

CSKA Pomir at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CSKA Pomir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: CSKA Pomir 1–2 Ravshan Zafarobod

Ravshan Zafarobod beat CSKA Pomir 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Politekhnikum in Dushanbe.