CSKA Pomir 3–1 Dushanbe-83: Result & Stats

CSKA Pomir

FT

3 – 1

Dushanbe-83

F. Fatkhulloev 59'

S. Dzhalilov 48'

S. Asoev 37'

L. Menjana 24'

4/24/2021

Vysshaya Liga · Round 4Stadion Politekhnikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

CSKA Pomir71%

×Draw17%

Dushanbe-8312%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA PomirExpected goals in this matchDushanbe-83

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.82

CSKA Pomir

2.33

Dushanbe-83

0.82

CSKA Pomir creates 184% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

0.50

1.14

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

CSKA Pomir

2.00

Dushanbe-83

0.50

allows per match

CSKA Pomir

1.14

Dushanbe-83

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Pomir+0.00on par

Dushanbe-83+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Pomir ↓

Dushanbe-83 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

CSKA Pomir or draw

88%

CSKA Pomir or Dushanbe-83

83%

Draw or Dushanbe-83

29%

Winning margin

CSKA Pomir wins by 2+

48%

Dushanbe-83 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

CSKA Pomir 1+ goals

90%

CSKA Pomir 2+ goals

67%

CSKA Pomir 3+ goals

41%

Dushanbe-83 1+ goals

56%

Dushanbe-83 2+ goals

20%

Dushanbe-83 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)

86%

Dushanbe-83 (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Pomir at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

Dushanbe-83 away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Pomir attack 2.00 + Dushanbe-83 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Dushanbe-83 attack 0.50 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

CSKA Pomir scores more

71%

level

17%

Dushanbe-83 scores more

12%

CSKA Pomir at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "CSKA Pomir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

L. Menjana

37'

S. Asoev

48'

S. Dzhalilov

59'

F. Fatkhulloev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff