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CSKA Moskva U20 vs Ufa U20 — Youth Championship 2026

CSKA Moskva U20
CSKA Moskva U20
FT
1 – 4
Ufa U20
Ufa U20
9/23/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 3Stadion Oktyabr'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

CSKA Moskva U2065%
×Draw20%
Ufa U2016%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moskva U20
2.17
Ufa U20
0.96

CSKA Moskva U20 creates 126% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 40 away

creates per match

CSKA Moskva U20
2.10
Ufa U20
0.97

allows per match

CSKA Moskva U20
0.95
Ufa U20
2.25

finishing

CSKA Moskva U20+0.00on par
Ufa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moskva U20 ↓

Ufa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

CSKA Moskva U20 or draw
84%
CSKA Moskva U20 or Ufa U20
80%
Draw or Ufa U20
35%

Winning margin

CSKA Moskva U20 wins by 2+
41%
Ufa U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CSKA Moskva U20 1+ goals
89%
CSKA Moskva U20 2+ goals
64%
CSKA Moskva U20 3+ goals
36%
Ufa U20 1+ goals
62%
Ufa U20 2+ goals
25%
Ufa U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
81%
Ufa U20 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moskva U20 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Ufa U20 away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.25 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moskva U20 attack 2.10 + Ufa U20 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.17

Ufa U20 attack 0.97 + CSKA Moskva U20 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

CSKA Moskva U20 scores more
65%
level
20%
Ufa U20 scores more
16%

CSKA Moskva U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "CSKA Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA Moskva U20 vs Ufa U20

Ufa U20 beat CSKA Moskva U20 4-1 in Youth Championship on September 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Oktyabr' in Moskva.