CSKA Moskva U20 2–1 Krylya Sovetov U20

CSKA Moskva U20

FT

2 – 1

Krylya Sovetov U20

11/23/2019

Youth Championship · Round 17Stadion Oktyabr' Artificial Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

CSKA Moskva U2046%

×Draw22%

Krylya Sovetov U2032%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA Moskva U20Expected goals in this matchKrylya Sovetov U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.61

CSKA Moskva U20

1.96

Krylya Sovetov U20

1.61

CSKA Moskva U20 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 11 away

2.10

creates per match

2.27

0.95

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

CSKA Moskva U20

2.10

Krylya Sovetov U20

2.27

allows per match

CSKA Moskva U20

0.95

Krylya Sovetov U20

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Moskva U20+0.00on par

Krylya Sovetov U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moskva U20 ↓

Krylya Sovetov U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

CSKA Moskva U20 or draw

68%

CSKA Moskva U20 or Krylya Sovetov U20

78%

Draw or Krylya Sovetov U20

54%

Winning margin

CSKA Moskva U20 wins by 2+

26%

Krylya Sovetov U20 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

CSKA Moskva U20 1+ goals

86%

CSKA Moskva U20 2+ goals

58%

CSKA Moskva U20 3+ goals

31%

Krylya Sovetov U20 1+ goals

80%

Krylya Sovetov U20 2+ goals

48%

Krylya Sovetov U20 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moskva U20 (draw refunded)

59%

Krylya Sovetov U20 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moskva U20 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Krylya Sovetov U20 away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moskva U20 attack 2.10 + Krylya Sovetov U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.96

Krylya Sovetov U20 attack 2.27 + CSKA Moskva U20 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CSKA Moskva U20 scores more

46%

level

22%

Krylya Sovetov U20 scores more

32%

CSKA Moskva U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CSKA Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff