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CSKA Moskva U20 vs Krasnodar U20 — Youth Championship 2026

CSKA Moskva U20
CSKA Moskva U20
FT
1 – 4
Krasnodar U20
Krasnodar U20
9/22/2019Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 10Stadion Oktyabr' Artificial Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

CSKA Moskva U2048%
×Draw23%
Krasnodar U2029%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moskva U20
1.77
Krasnodar U20
1.32

CSKA Moskva U20 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

CSKA Moskva U20
2.10
Krasnodar U20
1.70

allows per match

CSKA Moskva U20
0.95
Krasnodar U20
1.45

finishing

CSKA Moskva U20+0.00on par
Krasnodar U20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moskva U20 ↓

Krasnodar U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

CSKA Moskva U20 or draw
71%
CSKA Moskva U20 or Krasnodar U20
77%
Draw or Krasnodar U20
52%

Winning margin

CSKA Moskva U20 wins by 2+
26%
Krasnodar U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CSKA Moskva U20 1+ goals
83%
CSKA Moskva U20 2+ goals
53%
CSKA Moskva U20 3+ goals
26%
Krasnodar U20 1+ goals
73%
Krasnodar U20 2+ goals
38%
Krasnodar U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
63%
Krasnodar U20 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moskva U20 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Krasnodar U20 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moskva U20 attack 2.10 + Krasnodar U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.77

Krasnodar U20 attack 1.70 + CSKA Moskva U20 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CSKA Moskva U20 scores more
48%
level
23%
Krasnodar U20 scores more
29%

CSKA Moskva U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CSKA Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: CSKA Moskva U20 1–4 Krasnodar U20

Krasnodar U20 beat CSKA Moskva U20 4-1 in Youth Championship on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Oktyabr' Artificial Turf in Moskva.