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CSKA Moskva U20 vs Khimki U20 — Youth Championship 2026

CSKA Moskva U20
CSKA Moskva U20
FT
4 – 1
Khimki U20
Khimki U20
2/26/2021Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 15Stadion Oktyabr'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

CSKA Moskva U2060%
×Draw20%
Khimki U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moskva U20
2.16
Khimki U20
1.16

CSKA Moskva U20 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 42 away

creates per match

CSKA Moskva U20
2.10
Khimki U20
1.36

allows per match

CSKA Moskva U20
0.95
Khimki U20
2.21

finishing

CSKA Moskva U20+0.00on par
Khimki U20+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moskva U20 ↓

Khimki U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

CSKA Moskva U20 or draw
80%
CSKA Moskva U20 or Khimki U20
80%
Draw or Khimki U20
40%

Winning margin

CSKA Moskva U20 wins by 2+
37%
Khimki U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CSKA Moskva U20 1+ goals
88%
CSKA Moskva U20 2+ goals
63%
CSKA Moskva U20 3+ goals
36%
Khimki U20 1+ goals
69%
Khimki U20 2+ goals
32%
Khimki U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
75%
Khimki U20 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moskva U20 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Khimki U20 away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moskva U20 attack 2.10 + Khimki U20 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.16

Khimki U20 attack 1.36 + CSKA Moskva U20 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CSKA Moskva U20 scores more
60%
level
20%
Khimki U20 scores more
20%

CSKA Moskva U20 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CSKA Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA Moskva U20 vs Khimki U20

CSKA Moskva U20 beat Khimki U20 4-1 in Youth Championship on February 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Oktyabr' in Moskva.