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CSKA Moskva U19 vs Ufa U20 — Youth Championship 2026

CSKA Moskva U19
CSKA Moskva U19
FT
3 – 0
Ufa U20
Ufa U20
8/6/2021Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 4Stadion Oktyabr'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

CSKA Moskva U1966%
×Draw19%
Ufa U2015%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moskva U19
2.31
Ufa U20
1.01

CSKA Moskva U19 creates 129% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 40 away

creates per match

CSKA Moskva U19
2.38
Ufa U20
0.97

allows per match

CSKA Moskva U19
1.05
Ufa U20
2.25

finishing

CSKA Moskva U19+0.00on par
Ufa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moskva U19 ↓

Ufa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

CSKA Moskva U19 or draw
85%
CSKA Moskva U19 or Ufa U20
81%
Draw or Ufa U20
34%

Winning margin

CSKA Moskva U19 wins by 2+
43%
Ufa U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CSKA Moskva U19 1+ goals
90%
CSKA Moskva U19 2+ goals
67%
CSKA Moskva U19 3+ goals
40%
Ufa U20 1+ goals
64%
Ufa U20 2+ goals
27%
Ufa U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
81%
Ufa U20 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moskva U19 at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

Ufa U20 away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.25 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moskva U19 attack 2.38 + Ufa U20 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.31

Ufa U20 attack 0.97 + CSKA Moskva U19 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

CSKA Moskva U19 scores more
66%
level
19%
Ufa U20 scores more
15%

CSKA Moskva U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "CSKA Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: CSKA Moskva U19 3–0 Ufa U20

CSKA Moskva U19 beat Ufa U20 3-0 in Youth Championship on August 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Oktyabr' in Moskva.