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CSKA Moskva U19 vs Strogino U20 — Youth Championship 2026

CSKA Moskva U19
CSKA Moskva U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Strogino U20
Strogino U20
11/11/2022Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 18Stadion Oktyabr'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

CSKA Moskva U1958%
×Draw21%
Strogino U2022%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moskva U19
2.15
Strogino U20
1.25

CSKA Moskva U19 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 56 away

creates per match

CSKA Moskva U19
2.38
Strogino U20
1.45

allows per match

CSKA Moskva U19
1.05
Strogino U20
1.91

finishing

CSKA Moskva U19+0.00on par
Strogino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moskva U19 ↓

Strogino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

CSKA Moskva U19 or draw
78%
CSKA Moskva U19 or Strogino U20
79%
Draw or Strogino U20
42%

Winning margin

CSKA Moskva U19 wins by 2+
35%
Strogino U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CSKA Moskva U19 1+ goals
88%
CSKA Moskva U19 2+ goals
63%
CSKA Moskva U19 3+ goals
36%
Strogino U20 1+ goals
71%
Strogino U20 2+ goals
36%
Strogino U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
73%
Strogino U20 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moskva U19 at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

Strogino U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moskva U19 attack 2.38 + Strogino U20 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.15

Strogino U20 attack 1.45 + CSKA Moskva U19 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CSKA Moskva U19 scores more
58%
level
21%
Strogino U20 scores more
22%

CSKA Moskva U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CSKA Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: CSKA Moskva U19 1–0 Strogino U20

CSKA Moskva U19 beat Strogino U20 1-0 in Youth Championship on November 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Oktyabr' in Moskva.