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CSKA Moskva U19 vs Orenburg U19 — Youth Championship 2026

CSKA Moskva U19
CSKA Moskva U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Orenburg U19
Orenburg U19
8/5/2022Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 5Stadion Oktyabr'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

CSKA Moskva U1972%
×Draw16%
Orenburg U1912%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moskva U19
2.52
Orenburg U19
0.92

CSKA Moskva U19 creates 174% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 38 away

creates per match

CSKA Moskva U19
2.38
Orenburg U19
0.79

allows per match

CSKA Moskva U19
1.05
Orenburg U19
2.66

finishing

CSKA Moskva U19+0.00on par
Orenburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moskva U19 ↓

Orenburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

CSKA Moskva U19 or draw
88%
CSKA Moskva U19 or Orenburg U19
84%
Draw or Orenburg U19
28%

Winning margin

CSKA Moskva U19 wins by 2+
50%
Orenburg U19 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CSKA Moskva U19 1+ goals
92%
CSKA Moskva U19 2+ goals
71%
CSKA Moskva U19 3+ goals
45%
Orenburg U19 1+ goals
60%
Orenburg U19 2+ goals
23%
Orenburg U19 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
86%
Orenburg U19 (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moskva U19 at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

Orenburg U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moskva U19 attack 2.38 + Orenburg U19 defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 2.52

Orenburg U19 attack 0.79 + CSKA Moskva U19 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

CSKA Moskva U19 scores more
72%
level
16%
Orenburg U19 scores more
12%

CSKA Moskva U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "CSKA Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: CSKA Moskva U19 2–1 Orenburg U19

CSKA Moskva U19 beat Orenburg U19 2-1 in Youth Championship on August 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Oktyabr' in Moskva.