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CSKA Moskva U19 vs Chertanovo U20 — Youth Championship 2026

CSKA Moskva U19
CSKA Moskva U19
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chertanovo U20
Chertanovo U20
5/17/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 10Stadion Oktyabr' 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

CSKA Moskva U1958%
×Draw20%
Chertanovo U2022%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moskva U19
2.21
Chertanovo U20
1.29

CSKA Moskva U19 creates 71% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 73 away

creates per match

CSKA Moskva U19
2.38
Chertanovo U20
1.53

allows per match

CSKA Moskva U19
1.05
Chertanovo U20
2.05

finishing

CSKA Moskva U19+0.00on par
Chertanovo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moskva U19 ↓

Chertanovo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

CSKA Moskva U19 or draw
78%
CSKA Moskva U19 or Chertanovo U20
80%
Draw or Chertanovo U20
42%

Winning margin

CSKA Moskva U19 wins by 2+
36%
Chertanovo U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CSKA Moskva U19 1+ goals
89%
CSKA Moskva U19 2+ goals
65%
CSKA Moskva U19 3+ goals
38%
Chertanovo U20 1+ goals
72%
Chertanovo U20 2+ goals
37%
Chertanovo U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
73%
Chertanovo U20 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moskva U19 at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

Chertanovo U20 away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.05 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moskva U19 attack 2.38 + Chertanovo U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.21

Chertanovo U20 attack 1.53 + CSKA Moskva U19 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CSKA Moskva U19 scores more
58%
level
20%
Chertanovo U20 scores more
22%

CSKA Moskva U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CSKA Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA Moskva U19 vs Chertanovo U20

CSKA Moskva U19 beat Chertanovo U20 5-1 in Youth Championship on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Oktyabr' 2 in Moskva.