Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CSKA Moscow vs Orenburg — Cup 2019

CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Orenburg
Orenburg
11/2/2023CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 5VEB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

CSKA Moscow60%
×Draw23%
Orenburg17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Moscow
1.79
Orenburg
0.82

CSKA Moscow creates 118% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 18 away

creates per match

CSKA Moscow
1.65
Orenburg
0.94

allows per match

CSKA Moscow
0.70
Orenburg
1.94

finishing

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par
Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Moscow ↓

Orenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CSKA Moscow or draw
83%
CSKA Moscow or Orenburg
77%
Draw or Orenburg
40%

Winning margin

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
35%
Orenburg wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
83%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
53%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
26%
Orenburg 1+ goals
56%
Orenburg 2+ goals
20%
Orenburg 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
78%
Orenburg (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.70 · 23 matches

Orenburg away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Moscow attack 1.65 + Orenburg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.79

Orenburg attack 0.94 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CSKA Moscow scores more
60%
level
23%
Orenburg scores more
17%

CSKA Moscow at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA Moscow vs Orenburg

CSKA Moscow beat Orenburg 3-1 in Cup on November 2, 2023.

The match was played at VEB Arena in Moskva.