CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna — First League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 14+ matches
CSKA 194854%
Spartak Varna20%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
CSKA 1948 creates 83% more chances
Season form · 14 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
CSKA 1948 ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.06 · 14 matches
Spartak Varna away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.97 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
CSKA 1948 attack 1.11 + Spartak Varna defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.54
Spartak Varna attack 0.63 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.84
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
CSKA 1948 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna
Beroe
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Slavia Sofia
Botev Vratsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
Septemvri Sofia
Dunav Ruse
Vereya Stara ZagoraIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
CSKA 1948 host Spartak Varna on Sunday, 28 July 2024 at 16:00. The match is part of the First League 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna
CSKA 1948 and Spartak Varna drew 2-2 in First League on July 28, 2024.
Goals: M. Ilievski (17'), A. Ahmedov (41'), N. Pišćević (45'), A. Vutov (72' pen).
The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.