CSKA 1948 0–1 Spartak Trnava: Result & Stats

CSKA 1948

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Spartak Trnava

J. Paur 10'

1/22/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

CSKA 194863%

×Draw21%

Spartak Trnava16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA 1948Expected goals in this matchSpartak Trnava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.93

CSKA 1948

2.04

Spartak Trnava

0.93

CSKA 1948 creates 119% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 8 away

1.95

creates per match

0.63

1.23

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

CSKA 1948

1.95

Spartak Trnava

0.63

allows per match

CSKA 1948

1.23

Spartak Trnava

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Spartak Trnava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

Spartak Trnava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw

84%

CSKA 1948 or Spartak Trnava

79%

Draw or Spartak Trnava

37%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+

39%

Spartak Trnava wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals

87%

CSKA 1948 2+ goals

60%

CSKA 1948 3+ goals

33%

Spartak Trnava 1+ goals

61%

Spartak Trnava 2+ goals

24%

Spartak Trnava 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)

79%

Spartak Trnava (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Spartak Trnava away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 1.95 + Spartak Trnava defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.04

Spartak Trnava attack 0.63 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more

63%

level

21%

Spartak Trnava scores more

16%

CSKA 1948 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

J. Paur

CSKA

Spartak

1

52

13

23

29

8

20

7

17

⚽

11

93

1

2

88

34

3

6

23

19

67

11

94

Manager: Ivan Stoyanov

CSKA 1948 substitutes

13Sheytanov99Marques22Gasevic15Soltani21Dvali96GrivicManyan20Sobrero7Berna10Tsonev77Franco17Martines93Diallo

Manager: Antonio Munoz

Spartak Trnava substitutes

72Vantruba3Jureskin12Taiwo14Kratochvil15Stojsavljevic27Tomic21KarhanPoltak9BukovskyAdewale30Khorkheli18Gong19Kudlicka24Kostrna

Friendlies Clubs: CSKA 1948 0–1 Spartak Trnava

Spartak Trnava beat CSKA 1948 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 22, 2026.

Goals: J. Paur (10').

CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Trnava — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: CSKA 1948 0–1 Spartak Trnava