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CSKA 1948 vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — First League 2026

CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
9/20/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Bistritsa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

CSKA 194844%
×Draw27%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948
1.41
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.09

CSKA 1948 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 136 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948
1.51
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.15

allows per match

CSKA 1948
1.03
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.31

finishing

CSKA 1948+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw
71%
CSKA 1948 or Lokomotiv Plovdiv
73%
Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv
56%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
21%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals
76%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
41%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
17%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals
66%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals
30%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
60%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.03 · 104 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.31 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 1.51 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.15 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more
44%
level
27%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more
29%

CSKA 1948 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA 1948 vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

CSKA 1948 beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4-0 in First League on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Bistritsa Stadium in Sofia.