CSKA 1948 1–2 Göztepe: Result & Stats

CSKA 1948

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Göztepe

B. Sobrero 13'

Juan Santos 59'

A. Dennis 52'

1/10/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CSKA 194834%

×Draw26%

Göztepe41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA 1948Expected goals in this matchGöztepe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.42

CSKA 1948

1.27

Göztepe

1.42

Göztepe creates 12% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 5 away

1.95

creates per match

1.60

1.23

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

CSKA 1948

1.95

Göztepe

1.60

allows per match

CSKA 1948

1.23

Göztepe

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

Göztepe →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw

59%

CSKA 1948 or Göztepe

74%

Draw or Göztepe

66%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+

15%

Göztepe wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals

72%

CSKA 1948 2+ goals

36%

CSKA 1948 3+ goals

14%

Göztepe 1+ goals

76%

Göztepe 2+ goals

41%

Göztepe 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)

45%

Göztepe (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Göztepe away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 1.95 + Göztepe defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.27

Göztepe attack 1.60 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more

34%

level

26%

Göztepe scores more

41%

Göztepe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

B. Sobrero

52'

A. Dennis

59'

Juan Santos

CSKA

Göztepe

⚽

⚽

⚽

Manager: Ivan Stoyanov

CSKA 1948 substitutes

99Marques4Hoffmann88Traore96Grivic10KrebsTsonev19Boychev67Frederic11Rusev94IlievDimitrovTarasenkoRomaniuk3Carrion

Manager: Stanimir Stoilov

Göztepe substitutes

17KilicarslanOzturk3Godoi23Bayir77Bayrak22Yildiz13Teixeira11Bekiroglu7Sabra80LuizTindanoBildirici