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CSKA 1948 vs FCSB — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FCSB
FCSB
F. Coman 28'
7/26/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundStadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CSKA 194850%
×Draw28%
FCSB23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948
1.38
FCSB
0.83

CSKA 1948 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948
1.00
FCSB
1.00

allows per match

CSKA 1948
0.67
FCSB
1.75

finishing

CSKA 1948+0.00on par
FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

FCSB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw
77%
CSKA 1948 or FCSB
72%
Draw or FCSB
50%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
24%
FCSB wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals
75%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
40%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
16%
FCSB 1+ goals
56%
FCSB 2+ goals
20%
FCSB 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
69%
FCSB (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 1.00 + FCSB defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

FCSB attack 1.00 + CSKA 1948 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more
50%
level
28%
FCSB scores more
23%

CSKA 1948 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Alexandru Băluță
28'
F. Coman
46'
Thalis← E. Tsenov
46'
Octavian Popescu← A. Băluță
46'
M. Edjouma← A. Cordea
58'
Simeon Petrov
60'
A. Vutov← S. Stoichkov
60'
B. Karagaren← G. Rusev
62'
V. Crețu← Ovidiu Popescu
66'
Thalis Cantanhede
79'
R. Kirilov← Pedrinho
79'
R. Wankewai← V. Kjartansson
86'
D. Miculescu← F. Coman
86'
E. Rădăslăvescu← D. Olaru

Statistics

CSKAFCSB
Overview
5Corners2
Discipline
2Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: CSKA 1948 vs FCSB

FCSB beat CSKA 1948 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 26, 2023.

Goals: F. Coman (28').

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Sofia.