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CSKA 1948 vs Buducnost Podgorica — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
7/25/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundStadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CSKA 194859%
×Draw27%
Buducnost Podgorica14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948
1.43
Buducnost Podgorica
0.55

CSKA 1948 creates 160% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948
1.00
Buducnost Podgorica
0.43

allows per match

CSKA 1948
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
1.86

finishing

CSKA 1948+0.00on par
Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw
86%
CSKA 1948 or Buducnost Podgorica
73%
Draw or Buducnost Podgorica
41%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
30%
Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals
76%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
42%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
17%
Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
42%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
11%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
80%
Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 1.00 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Buducnost Podgorica attack 0.43 + CSKA 1948 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more
59%
level
27%
Buducnost Podgorica scores more
14%

CSKA 1948 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: CSKA 1948 1–0 Buducnost Podgorica

CSKA 1948 beat Buducnost Podgorica 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Sofia.