CSKA 1948 2–1 Beroe: Result & Stats | First League

CSKA 1948

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Beroe

11/29/2025

First League · Round 17Bistritsa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

CSKA 194849%

×Draw26%

Beroe25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA 1948Expected goals in this matchBeroe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.98

CSKA 1948

1.48

Beroe

0.98

CSKA 1948 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 138 away

1.51

creates per match

0.93

1.03

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

CSKA 1948

1.51

Beroe

0.93

allows per match

CSKA 1948

1.03

Beroe

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Beroe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 ↓

Beroe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 or draw

75%

CSKA 1948 or Beroe

74%

Draw or Beroe

51%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+

24%

Beroe wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 1+ goals

77%

CSKA 1948 2+ goals

43%

CSKA 1948 3+ goals

19%

Beroe 1+ goals

62%

Beroe 2+ goals

26%

Beroe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)

66%

Beroe (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.03 · 104 matches

Beroe away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.46 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 attack 1.51 + Beroe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.48

Beroe attack 0.93 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CSKA 1948 scores more

49%

level

26%

Beroe scores more

25%

CSKA 1948 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CSKA 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff