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CSKA 1948 Sofia III vs Slivnishki geroy — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
11/11/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 17Stadion NSA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III44%
×Draw26%
Slivnishki geroy30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.48
Slivnishki geroy
1.18

CSKA 1948 Sofia III creates 25% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 130 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.51
Slivnishki geroy
1.02

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.34
Slivnishki geroy
1.46

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par
Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia III ↓

Slivnishki geroy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or draw
70%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III or Slivnishki geroy
74%
Draw or Slivnishki geroy
56%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
22%
Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
77%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
43%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
19%
Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
69%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
33%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
59%
Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

Slivnishki geroy away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.51 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.48

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.02 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
44%
level
26%
Slivnishki geroy scores more
30%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA 1948 Sofia III vs Slivnishki geroy

Slivnishki geroy beat CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion NSA in Sofia.