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CSKA 1948 Sofia III vs Slavia Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
FT
3 – 5
Slavia Sofia II
Slavia Sofia II
9/30/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 9Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III47%
×Draw23%
Slavia Sofia II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.75
Slavia Sofia II
1.33

CSKA 1948 Sofia III creates 32% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 70 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.51
Slavia Sofia II
1.33

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.34
Slavia Sofia II
1.99

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par
Slavia Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia III ↓

Slavia Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or draw
71%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III or Slavia Sofia II
77%
Draw or Slavia Sofia II
53%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
25%
Slavia Sofia II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
83%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
52%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
25%
Slavia Sofia II 1+ goals
74%
Slavia Sofia II 2+ goals
38%
Slavia Sofia II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
62%
Slavia Sofia II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

Slavia Sofia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.99 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.51 + Slavia Sofia II defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.75

Slavia Sofia II attack 1.33 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
47%
level
23%
Slavia Sofia II scores more
29%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA 1948 Sofia III vs Slavia Sofia II

Slavia Sofia II beat CSKA 1948 Sofia III 5-3 in Third League - Southwest on September 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.