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CSKA 1948 Sofia III vs Septemvri Simitli — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
5/17/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 35Stadion Akademik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III45%
×Draw26%
Septemvri Simitli29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.50
Septemvri Simitli
1.15

CSKA 1948 Sofia III creates 30% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 94 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.51
Septemvri Simitli
0.96

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.34
Septemvri Simitli
1.48

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par
Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia III ↓

Septemvri Simitli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or draw
71%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III or Septemvri Simitli
74%
Draw or Septemvri Simitli
55%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
22%
Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
78%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
44%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
19%
Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
68%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
32%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
61%
Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.51 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.50

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.96 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
45%
level
26%
Septemvri Simitli scores more
29%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2–1 Septemvri Simitli

CSKA 1948 Sofia III beat Septemvri Simitli 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Akademik in Sofia.