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CSKA 1948 Sofia III vs Pirin Razlog — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
3/18/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - Relegation Round - 1Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III46%
×Draw25%
Pirin Razlog29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.54
Pirin Razlog
1.16

CSKA 1948 Sofia III creates 33% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 131 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.51
Pirin Razlog
0.98

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.34
Pirin Razlog
1.57

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par
Pirin Razlog+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia III ↓

Pirin Razlog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or draw
71%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III or Pirin Razlog
75%
Draw or Pirin Razlog
54%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
23%
Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
79%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
45%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
20%
Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
69%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
32%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
62%
Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

Pirin Razlog away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.51 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Pirin Razlog attack 0.98 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
46%
level
25%
Pirin Razlog scores more
29%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA 1948 Sofia III vs Pirin Razlog

Pirin Razlog beat CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.