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CSKA 1948 Sofia III vs Hebar II — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
FT
2 – 0
Hebar II
Hebar II
3/23/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 26Stadion NSA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III52%
×Draw25%
Hebar II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.56
Hebar II
0.95

CSKA 1948 Sofia III creates 64% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 38 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.51
Hebar II
0.55

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.34
Hebar II
1.61

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par
Hebar II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia III ↓

Hebar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or draw
77%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III or Hebar II
75%
Draw or Hebar II
48%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
27%
Hebar II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
79%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
46%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
21%
Hebar II 1+ goals
61%
Hebar II 2+ goals
25%
Hebar II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
69%
Hebar II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

Hebar II away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.51 + Hebar II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Hebar II attack 0.55 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
52%
level
25%
Hebar II scores more
23%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2–0 Hebar II

CSKA 1948 Sofia III beat Hebar II 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion NSA in Sofia.