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CSKA 1948 Sofia III vs FK Minyor Pernik — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
2/14/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 19Stadion NSA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III32%
×Draw26%
FK Minyor Pernik42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.20
FK Minyor Pernik
1.42

FK Minyor Pernik creates 18% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 45 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.51
FK Minyor Pernik
1.49

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.34
FK Minyor Pernik
0.89

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par
FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia III ↓

FK Minyor Pernik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or draw
58%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III or FK Minyor Pernik
74%
Draw or FK Minyor Pernik
68%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
13%
FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
70%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
34%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
12%
FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
76%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
41%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
43%
FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.51 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.20

FK Minyor Pernik attack 1.49 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
32%
level
26%
FK Minyor Pernik scores more
42%

FK Minyor Pernik at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FK Minyor Pernik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: CSKA 1948 Sofia III 0–2 FK Minyor Pernik

FK Minyor Pernik beat CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on February 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion NSA in Sofia.