CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1–1 CSKA Sofia III

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CSKA Sofia III

10/29/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 15Stadion NSA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III43%

×Draw25%

CSKA Sofia III31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA 1948 Sofia IIIExpected goals in this matchCSKA Sofia III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.23

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.50

CSKA Sofia III

1.23

CSKA 1948 Sofia III creates 22% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 35 away

1.51

creates per match

1.11

1.34

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.51

CSKA Sofia III

1.11

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.34

CSKA Sofia III

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

CSKA Sofia III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia III ↓

CSKA Sofia III →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or draw

69%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or CSKA Sofia III

75%

Draw or CSKA Sofia III

57%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+

21%

CSKA Sofia III wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals

78%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals

44%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals

19%

CSKA Sofia III 1+ goals

71%

CSKA Sofia III 2+ goals

35%

CSKA Sofia III 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)

58%

CSKA Sofia III (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

CSKA Sofia III away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.51 + CSKA Sofia III defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.50

CSKA Sofia III attack 1.11 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more

43%

level

25%

CSKA Sofia III scores more

31%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff