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CSKA 1948 Sofia III vs Chavdar Etropole — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
FT
1 – 2
Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
10/15/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 11Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III37%
×Draw25%
Chavdar Etropole38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.43
Chavdar Etropole
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 87 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.51
Chavdar Etropole
1.55

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.34
Chavdar Etropole
1.34

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par
Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia III ↓

Chavdar Etropole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or draw
62%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III or Chavdar Etropole
75%
Draw or Chavdar Etropole
63%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
17%
Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
76%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
42%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
17%
Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
77%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
42%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
49%
Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.51 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.43

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
37%
level
25%
Chavdar Etropole scores more
38%

Chavdar Etropole at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1–2 Chavdar Etropole

Chavdar Etropole beat CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.