CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2–1 Botev Ihtiman

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

FT

2 – 1

Botev Ihtiman

8/19/2023

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 4Stadion NSA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III47%

×Draw25%

Botev Ihtiman28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA 1948 Sofia IIIExpected goals in this matchBotev Ihtiman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.16

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.59

Botev Ihtiman

1.16

CSKA 1948 Sofia III creates 37% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 132 away

1.51

creates per match

0.98

1.34

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.51

Botev Ihtiman

0.98

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.34

Botev Ihtiman

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia III ↓

Botev Ihtiman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or draw

72%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or Botev Ihtiman

75%

Draw or Botev Ihtiman

53%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+

24%

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals

80%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals

47%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals

21%

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals

69%

Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals

32%

Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)

63%

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

Botev Ihtiman away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.51 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.59

Botev Ihtiman attack 0.98 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more

47%

level

25%

Botev Ihtiman scores more

28%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff