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CSKA 1948 Sofia III vs Bansko — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bansko
Bansko
3/2/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 22Stadion NSA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III43%
×Draw26%
Bansko30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.44
Bansko
1.16

CSKA 1948 Sofia III creates 24% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 129 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.51
Bansko
0.98

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.34
Bansko
1.36

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par
Bansko+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia III ↓

Bansko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or draw
70%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III or Bansko
74%
Draw or Bansko
57%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
21%
Bansko wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
76%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
42%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
18%
Bansko 1+ goals
69%
Bansko 2+ goals
32%
Bansko 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
59%
Bansko (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

Bansko away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.51 + Bansko defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bansko attack 0.98 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
43%
level
26%
Bansko scores more
30%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3–1 Bansko

CSKA 1948 Sofia III beat Bansko 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion NSA in Sofia.