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CSKA 1948 Sofia II vs Sozopol — Second League 2018

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sozopol
Sozopol
11/7/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 17Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II57%
×Draw24%
Sozopol19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.69
Sozopol
0.85

CSKA 1948 Sofia II creates 99% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 50 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.56
Sozopol
0.76

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
0.94
Sozopol
1.82

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par
Sozopol+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia II ↓

Sozopol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia II or draw
81%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II or Sozopol
76%
Draw or Sozopol
43%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+
32%
Sozopol wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals
82%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals
50%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals
24%
Sozopol 1+ goals
57%
Sozopol 2+ goals
21%
Sozopol 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)
75%
Sozopol (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 71 matches

Sozopol away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.82 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.56 + Sozopol defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sozopol attack 0.76 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more
57%
level
24%
Sozopol scores more
19%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1–1 Sozopol

CSKA 1948 Sofia II and Sozopol drew 1-1 in Second League on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.