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CSKA 1948 Sofia II vs Levski Lom — Second League 2018

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
CANC
14:00
Levski Lom
Levski Lom
4/2/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 29Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II67%
×Draw21%
Levski Lom12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.85
Levski Lom
0.63

CSKA 1948 Sofia II creates 194% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 13 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.56
Levski Lom
0.31

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
0.94
Levski Lom
2.15

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par
Levski Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia II ↓

Levski Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia II or draw
88%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II or Levski Lom
79%
Draw or Levski Lom
33%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+
40%
Levski Lom wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals
84%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals
55%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals
28%
Levski Lom 1+ goals
47%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
13%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)
85%
Levski Lom (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 71 matches

Levski Lom away — creates 0.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.56 + Levski Lom defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.85

Levski Lom attack 0.31 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more
67%
level
21%
Levski Lom scores more
12%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CSKA 1948 Sofia II vs Levski Lom — Match Preview

CSKA 1948 Sofia II face Levski Lom on April 2, 2022 in this Second League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

CSKA 1948 Sofia II host Levski Lom at Tsarsko selo Complex.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.