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CSKA 1948 Sofia II vs Levski Krumovgrad — Second League 2018

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
3/4/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 21Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II44%
×Draw27%
Levski Krumovgrad29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.37
Levski Krumovgrad
1.06

CSKA 1948 Sofia II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 17 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.56
Levski Krumovgrad
1.18

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
0.94
Levski Krumovgrad
1.18

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par
Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia II ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia II or draw
71%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II or Levski Krumovgrad
73%
Draw or Levski Krumovgrad
56%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+
21%
Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals
75%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals
40%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals
16%
Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
65%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
29%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)
60%
Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 71 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.56 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.37

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.18 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more
44%
level
27%
Levski Krumovgrad scores more
29%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2–0 Levski Krumovgrad

CSKA 1948 Sofia II beat Levski Krumovgrad 2-0 in Second League on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex in Sofia.