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CSKA 1948 Sofia II vs Fratria — Second League 2018

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fratria
Fratria
11/18/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 17Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II43%
×Draw27%
Fratria29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.33
Fratria
1.05

CSKA 1948 Sofia II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 35 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.56
Fratria
1.17

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II
0.94
Fratria
1.11

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par
Fratria+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia II ↓

Fratria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia II or draw
71%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II or Fratria
73%
Draw or Fratria
57%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+
20%
Fratria wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals
74%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals
38%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals
15%
Fratria 1+ goals
65%
Fratria 2+ goals
28%
Fratria 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)
59%
Fratria (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 71 matches

Fratria away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.56 + Fratria defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fratria attack 1.17 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more
43%
level
27%
Fratria scores more
29%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1–0 Fratria

CSKA 1948 Sofia II beat Fratria 1-0 in Second League on November 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.