CSKA 1948 Sofia II 0–1 Etar Veliko Tarnovo

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

10/4/2022

Second League · Round 11Tsarsko selo Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II44%

×Draw27%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA 1948 Sofia IIExpected goals in this matchEtar Veliko Tarnovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.07

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.38

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.07

CSKA 1948 Sofia II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 70 away

1.56

creates per match

1.20

0.94

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.56

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.20

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

0.94

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia II ↓

Etar Veliko Tarnovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia II or draw

71%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II or Etar Veliko Tarnovo

73%

Draw or Etar Veliko Tarnovo

56%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+

21%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals

75%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals

40%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals

16%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals

66%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals

29%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)

60%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 71 matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.56 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.38

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.20 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more

44%

level

27%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more

29%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff