CSKA 1948 Sofia II 0–0 CSKA Sofia II

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CSKA Sofia II

5/20/2025

Second League · Round 37Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II43%

×Draw26%

CSKA Sofia II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA 1948 Sofia IIExpected goals in this matchCSKA Sofia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.13

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.41

CSKA Sofia II

1.13

CSKA 1948 Sofia II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 35 away

1.56

creates per match

1.31

0.94

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

1.56

CSKA Sofia II

1.31

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II

0.94

CSKA Sofia II

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia II ↓

CSKA Sofia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia II or draw

70%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II or CSKA Sofia II

74%

Draw or CSKA Sofia II

57%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+

21%

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals

76%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals

41%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals

17%

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals

68%

CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals

31%

CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)

59%

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 71 matches

CSKA Sofia II away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.56 + CSKA Sofia II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.41

CSKA Sofia II attack 1.31 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more

43%

level

26%

CSKA Sofia II scores more

30%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff