Csikszereda 2–0 U Craiova 1948: Result & Stats

Csikszereda

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

U Craiova 1948

10/27/2024

Liga II · Round 11Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Csikszereda42%

×Draw27%

U Craiova 194831%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CsikszeredaExpected goals in this matchU Craiova 1948

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.10

Csikszereda

1.33

U Craiova 1948

1.10

Csikszereda creates 21% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 29 away

1.55

creates per match

1.24

0.96

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Csikszereda

1.55

U Craiova 1948

1.24

allows per match

Csikszereda

0.96

U Craiova 1948

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Csikszereda+0.00on par

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csikszereda ↓

U Craiova 1948 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Csikszereda or draw

69%

Csikszereda or U Craiova 1948

73%

Draw or U Craiova 1948

58%

Winning margin

Csikszereda wins by 2+

19%

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Csikszereda 1+ goals

74%

Csikszereda 2+ goals

38%

Csikszereda 3+ goals

15%

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals

67%

U Craiova 1948 2+ goals

30%

U Craiova 1948 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Csikszereda (draw refunded)

58%

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csikszereda at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.96 · 82 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csikszereda attack 1.55 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.24 + Csikszereda defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Csikszereda scores more

42%

level

27%

U Craiova 1948 scores more

31%

Csikszereda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Csikszereda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff