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Csikszereda vs Rapid — Liga II 2018

Csikszereda
Csikszereda
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rapid
Rapid
4/6/2021Liga IILiga II · Promotion Round - 1Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Csikszereda42%
×Draw26%
Rapid31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csikszereda
1.40
Rapid
1.17

Csikszereda creates 20% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 29 away

creates per match

Csikszereda
1.55
Rapid
1.38

allows per match

Csikszereda
0.96
Rapid
1.24

finishing

Csikszereda+0.00on par
Rapid+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csikszereda ↓

Rapid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Csikszereda or draw
69%
Csikszereda or Rapid
74%
Draw or Rapid
58%

Winning margin

Csikszereda wins by 2+
20%
Rapid wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Csikszereda 1+ goals
75%
Csikszereda 2+ goals
41%
Csikszereda 3+ goals
17%
Rapid 1+ goals
69%
Rapid 2+ goals
33%
Rapid 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Csikszereda (draw refunded)
57%
Rapid (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csikszereda at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.96 · 82 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csikszereda attack 1.55 + Rapid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Rapid attack 1.38 + Csikszereda defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Csikszereda scores more
42%
level
26%
Rapid scores more
31%

Csikszereda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Csikszereda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Csikszereda vs Rapid

Rapid beat Csikszereda 1-0 in Liga II on April 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Miercurea Ciuc.