Csikszereda 2–1 Oţelul: Result & Stats

Csikszereda

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Oţelul

S. Jebari 90+5'

J. Dolný 86' (pen)

R. Tănasă 10'

10/30/2024

League #285 · Group Stage - 2Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Csikszereda37%

×Draw26%

Oţelul37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CsikszeredaExpected goals in this matchOţelul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

Csikszereda

1.33

Oţelul

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.67

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Csikszereda

1.00

Oţelul

1.00

allows per match

Csikszereda

1.67

Oţelul

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Csikszereda+0.00on par

Oţelul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csikszereda ↓

Oţelul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Csikszereda or draw

63%

Csikszereda or Oţelul

74%

Draw or Oţelul

63%

Winning margin

Csikszereda wins by 2+

17%

Oţelul wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Csikszereda 1+ goals

74%

Csikszereda 2+ goals

38%

Csikszereda 3+ goals

15%

Oţelul 1+ goals

74%

Oţelul 2+ goals

38%

Oţelul 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Csikszereda (draw refunded)

50%

Oţelul (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csikszereda at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Oţelul away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csikszereda attack 1.00 + Oţelul defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Oţelul attack 1.00 + Csikszereda defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Csikszereda scores more

37%

level

26%

Oţelul scores more

37%

Csikszereda at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Csikszereda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

R. Tănasă

43'

45+1'

46'

B. Babati← A. Torvund

46'

D. Kelemen← E. Bloj

57'

Frédéric Maciel← V. Đurić

61'

Anderson Ceará← B. Babati

61'

J. Dolný← G. Makrai

65'

João Lameira← J. Cisotti

65'

S. Jurić← A. Pop

72'

78'

81'

A. Gheralia← B. Pintér

81'

L. Andronache← R. Tănasă

81'

N. Roșu← Samuel Teles

83'

85'

86'

J. DolnýPenalty

90+5'

S. Jebari

Csikszereda

Oţelul

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Ilyeş

46'▲B. Babati←▼A. Torvund

46'▲D. Kelemen←▼E. Bloj

61'▲Anderson Ceará←▼B. Babati

61'▲J. Dolný←▼G. Makrai

81'▲A. Gheralia←▼B. Pintér

Csikszereda substitutes

BabatiKelemenCearáDolnýGheraliaKarandiBakoșAlbertVereș

Manager: D. Munteanu

57'▲Frédéric Maciel←▼V. Đurić

65'▲João Lameira←▼J. Cisotti

65'▲S. Jurić←▼A. Pop

81'▲L. Andronache←▼R. Tănasă

81'▲N. Roșu←▼Samuel Teles

Oţelul substitutes

MacielLameiraJurićAndronacheRoșuMafteiPopescuTomaševićBourard