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Csikszereda vs FC Astra Giurgiu — Liga II 2018

Csikszereda
Csikszereda
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
8/9/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 2Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Csikszereda60%
×Draw22%
FC Astra Giurgiu18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csikszereda
1.90
FC Astra Giurgiu
0.94

Csikszereda creates 102% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 12 away

creates per match

Csikszereda
1.55
FC Astra Giurgiu
0.92

allows per match

Csikszereda
0.96
FC Astra Giurgiu
2.25

finishing

Csikszereda+0.00on par
FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csikszereda ↓

FC Astra Giurgiu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Csikszereda or draw
82%
Csikszereda or FC Astra Giurgiu
78%
Draw or FC Astra Giurgiu
40%

Winning margin

Csikszereda wins by 2+
35%
FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Csikszereda 1+ goals
85%
Csikszereda 2+ goals
56%
Csikszereda 3+ goals
29%
FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
61%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
24%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Csikszereda (draw refunded)
77%
FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csikszereda at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.96 · 82 matches

FC Astra Giurgiu away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csikszereda attack 1.55 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.90

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 0.92 + Csikszereda defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Csikszereda scores more
60%
level
22%
FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
18%

Csikszereda at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Csikszereda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Csikszereda vs FC Astra Giurgiu

FC Astra Giurgiu beat Csikszereda 1-0 in Liga II on August 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Miercurea Ciuc.