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Csikszereda vs Corona Braşov — Liga II 2018

Csikszereda
Csikszereda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Corona Braşov
Corona Braşov
3/12/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 19Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Csikszereda52%
×Draw28%
Corona Braşov20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csikszereda
1.39
Corona Braşov
0.76

Csikszereda creates 83% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 9 away

creates per match

Csikszereda
1.55
Corona Braşov
0.56

allows per match

Csikszereda
0.96
Corona Braşov
1.22

finishing

Csikszereda+0.00on par
Corona Braşov+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csikszereda ↓

Corona Braşov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Csikszereda or draw
80%
Csikszereda or Corona Braşov
72%
Draw or Corona Braşov
48%

Winning margin

Csikszereda wins by 2+
25%
Corona Braşov wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Csikszereda 1+ goals
75%
Csikszereda 2+ goals
40%
Csikszereda 3+ goals
16%
Corona Braşov 1+ goals
53%
Corona Braşov 2+ goals
18%
Corona Braşov 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Csikszereda (draw refunded)
72%
Corona Braşov (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csikszereda at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.96 · 82 matches

Corona Braşov away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csikszereda attack 1.55 + Corona Braşov defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Corona Braşov attack 0.56 + Csikszereda defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Csikszereda scores more
52%
level
28%
Corona Braşov scores more
20%

Csikszereda at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Csikszereda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Csikszereda 1–1 Corona Braşov

Csikszereda and Corona Braşov drew 1-1 in Liga II on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Miercurea Ciuc.