Csikszereda 2–0 Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

Csikszereda

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

3/10/2024

Liga II · Round 18Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Csikszereda52%

×Draw24%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CsikszeredaExpected goals in this matchCeahlăul Piatra Neamţ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.04

Csikszereda

1.67

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

1.04

Csikszereda creates 61% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 42 away

1.55

creates per match

1.12

0.96

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Csikszereda

1.55

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

1.12

allows per match

Csikszereda

0.96

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Csikszereda+0.00on par

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csikszereda ↓

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Csikszereda or draw

76%

Csikszereda or Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

76%

Draw or Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

48%

Winning margin

Csikszereda wins by 2+

28%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Csikszereda 1+ goals

81%

Csikszereda 2+ goals

50%

Csikszereda 3+ goals

23%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 1+ goals

65%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 2+ goals

28%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Csikszereda (draw refunded)

69%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csikszereda at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.96 · 82 matches

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csikszereda attack 1.55 + Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.67

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ attack 1.12 + Csikszereda defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Csikszereda scores more

52%

level

24%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ scores more

24%

Csikszereda at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Csikszereda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff