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CSF Bălți vs Victoria Bardar — Cupa 2020

CSF Bălți
CSF Bălțiadvanced
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
D. Rogac 90'
M. Platica 56', 44', 13'
A. Rusnac 54'
D. Botan 20'
I. Pavlov 18' (pen)
10/28/2025CupaCupa · Round of 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

CSF Bălți44%
×Draw19%
Victoria Bardar37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSF Bălți
2.46
Victoria Bardar
2.24

CSF Bălți creates 10% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

CSF Bălți
3.00
Victoria Bardar
3.58

allows per match

CSF Bălți
0.90
Victoria Bardar
1.92

finishing

CSF Bălți+0.00on par
Victoria Bardar+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSF Bălți ↓

Victoria Bardar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

CSF Bălți or draw
63%
CSF Bălți or Victoria Bardar
81%
Draw or Victoria Bardar
56%

Winning margin

CSF Bălți wins by 2+
26%
Victoria Bardar wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

CSF Bălți 1+ goals
91%
CSF Bălți 2+ goals
70%
CSF Bălți 3+ goals
44%
Victoria Bardar 1+ goals
89%
Victoria Bardar 2+ goals
65%
Victoria Bardar 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

CSF Bălți (draw refunded)
55%
Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSF Bălți at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Victoria Bardar away — creates 3.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSF Bălți attack 3.00 + Victoria Bardar defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.46

Victoria Bardar attack 3.58 + CSF Bălți defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CSF Bălți scores more
44%
level
19%
Victoria Bardar scores more
37%

CSF Bălți at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CSF Bălți will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
M. Platica
18'
I. PavlovPenalty
20'
D. Botan
44'
M. Platica
54'
A. Rusnac
56'
M. Platica
79'
90'
D. Rogac
CSF
Victoria
V. Rusnac
Manager: V. Rusnac
A. Novicov
Manager: A. Novicov

Match Recap: CSF Bălți vs Victoria Bardar

CSF Bălți beat Victoria Bardar 6-1 in Cupa on October 28, 2025.

Goals: M. Platica (13', 44', 56'), I. Pavlov (18' pen), D. Botan (20'), A. Rusnac (54'), D. Rogac (90').