Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CSF Bălți vs Dinamo-Auto — Super Liga 2019

CSF Bălți
CSF Bălți
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo-Auto
Dinamo-Auto
10/22/2022Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 12Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

CSF Bălți47%
×Draw24%
Dinamo-Auto29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSF Bălți
1.72
Dinamo-Auto
1.30

CSF Bălți creates 32% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 55 away

creates per match

CSF Bălți
1.21
Dinamo-Auto
1.35

allows per match

CSF Bălți
1.25
Dinamo-Auto
2.22

finishing

CSF Bălți+0.00on par
Dinamo-Auto+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSF Bălți ↓

Dinamo-Auto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

CSF Bălți or draw
71%
CSF Bălți or Dinamo-Auto
76%
Draw or Dinamo-Auto
53%

Winning margin

CSF Bălți wins by 2+
25%
Dinamo-Auto wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CSF Bălți 1+ goals
82%
CSF Bălți 2+ goals
51%
CSF Bălți 3+ goals
25%
Dinamo-Auto 1+ goals
73%
Dinamo-Auto 2+ goals
37%
Dinamo-Auto 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

CSF Bălți (draw refunded)
62%
Dinamo-Auto (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSF Bălți at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

Dinamo-Auto away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.22 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSF Bălți attack 1.21 + Dinamo-Auto defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.72

Dinamo-Auto attack 1.35 + CSF Bălți defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CSF Bălți scores more
47%
level
24%
Dinamo-Auto scores more
29%

CSF Bălți at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CSF Bălți will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSF Bălți vs Dinamo-Auto

CSF Bălți beat Dinamo-Auto 1-0 in Super Liga on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Bălţi.