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CSF Bălți vs Cahul — Cupa 2020

CSF Bălți
CSF Bălți
CANC
12:00
Cahul
Cahul
10/26/2021CupaCupa · Round of 16Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CSF Bălți37%
×Draw20%
Cahul43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSF Bălți
2.00
Cahul
2.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

CSF Bălți
3.00
Cahul
3.40

allows per match

CSF Bălți
0.90
Cahul
1.00

finishing

CSF Bălți+0.00on par
Cahul+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSF Bălți ↓

Cahul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

CSF Bălți or draw
57%
CSF Bălți or Cahul
80%
Draw or Cahul
63%

Winning margin

CSF Bălți wins by 2+
20%
Cahul wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

CSF Bălți 1+ goals
86%
CSF Bălți 2+ goals
59%
CSF Bălți 3+ goals
32%
Cahul 1+ goals
88%
Cahul 2+ goals
63%
Cahul 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

CSF Bălți (draw refunded)
47%
Cahul (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSF Bălți at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Cahul away — creates 3.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSF Bălți attack 3.00 + Cahul defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Cahul attack 3.40 + CSF Bălți defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CSF Bălți scores more
37%
level
20%
Cahul scores more
43%

Cahul at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cahul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CSF Bălți face Cahul (Cupa)

Cupa returns with CSF Bălți hosting Cahul. Match starts October 26, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

CSF Bălți host Cahul at Stadionul Orăşenesc.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.