Csep-Gól 1–2 Tiszaföldvár: Result & Stats

Csep-Gól

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Tiszaföldvár

10/27/2024

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 13Béke téri Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Csep-Gól58%

×Draw21%

Tiszaföldvár20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Csep-GólExpected goals in this matchTiszaföldvár

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.08

Csep-Gól

2.00

Tiszaföldvár

1.08

Csep-Gól creates 85% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

1.53

creates per match

0.70

1.47

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Csep-Gól

1.53

Tiszaföldvár

0.70

allows per match

Csep-Gól

1.47

Tiszaföldvár

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Csep-Gól+0.00on par

Tiszaföldvár+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csep-Gól ↓

Tiszaföldvár →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Csep-Gól or draw

80%

Csep-Gól or Tiszaföldvár

79%

Draw or Tiszaföldvár

42%

Winning margin

Csep-Gól wins by 2+

35%

Tiszaföldvár wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Csep-Gól 1+ goals

86%

Csep-Gól 2+ goals

59%

Csep-Gól 3+ goals

32%

Tiszaföldvár 1+ goals

66%

Tiszaföldvár 2+ goals

29%

Tiszaföldvár 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Csep-Gól (draw refunded)

74%

Tiszaföldvár (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csep-Gól at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Tiszaföldvár away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csep-Gól attack 1.53 + Tiszaföldvár defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.00

Tiszaföldvár attack 0.70 + Csep-Gól defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Csep-Gól scores more

58%

level

21%

Tiszaföldvár scores more

20%

Csep-Gól at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Csep-Gól will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff