Csep-Gól 1–2 Szegedi VSE: Result & Stats

Csep-Gól

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Szegedi VSE

3/22/2025

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 21Béke téri Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Csep-Gól47%

×Draw23%

Szegedi VSE30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Csep-GólExpected goals in this matchSzegedi VSE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.43

Csep-Gól

1.83

Szegedi VSE

1.43

Csep-Gól creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

1.53

creates per match

1.39

1.47

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Csep-Gól

1.53

Szegedi VSE

1.39

allows per match

Csep-Gól

1.47

Szegedi VSE

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Csep-Gól+0.00on par

Szegedi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csep-Gól ↓

Szegedi VSE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Csep-Gól or draw

70%

Csep-Gól or Szegedi VSE

77%

Draw or Szegedi VSE

53%

Winning margin

Csep-Gól wins by 2+

26%

Szegedi VSE wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Csep-Gól 1+ goals

84%

Csep-Gól 2+ goals

54%

Csep-Gól 3+ goals

28%

Szegedi VSE 1+ goals

76%

Szegedi VSE 2+ goals

42%

Szegedi VSE 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Csep-Gól (draw refunded)

61%

Szegedi VSE (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csep-Gól at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Szegedi VSE away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.14 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csep-Gól attack 1.53 + Szegedi VSE defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.83

Szegedi VSE attack 1.39 + Csep-Gól defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Csep-Gól scores more

47%

level

23%

Szegedi VSE scores more

30%

Csep-Gól at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Csep-Gól will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Csep-Gól

Szegedi

Manager: B. Rácz

Manager: P. Paksi