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Csep-Gól vs Pénzügyőr — NB III - Southeast 2023

Csep-Gól
Csep-Gól
FT
1 – 1
Pénzügyőr
Pénzügyőr
9/29/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 9Béke téri Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Csep-Gól45%
×Draw24%
Pénzügyőr31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csep-Gól
1.65
Pénzügyőr
1.33

Csep-Gól creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Csep-Gól
1.53
Pénzügyőr
1.20

allows per match

Csep-Gól
1.47
Pénzügyőr
1.77

finishing

Csep-Gól+0.00on par
Pénzügyőr+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csep-Gól ↓

Pénzügyőr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Csep-Gól or draw
69%
Csep-Gól or Pénzügyőr
76%
Draw or Pénzügyőr
55%

Winning margin

Csep-Gól wins by 2+
23%
Pénzügyőr wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Csep-Gól 1+ goals
81%
Csep-Gól 2+ goals
49%
Csep-Gól 3+ goals
23%
Pénzügyőr 1+ goals
74%
Pénzügyőr 2+ goals
38%
Pénzügyőr 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Csep-Gól (draw refunded)
59%
Pénzügyőr (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csep-Gól at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Pénzügyőr away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csep-Gól attack 1.53 + Pénzügyőr defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.65

Pénzügyőr attack 1.20 + Csep-Gól defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Csep-Gól scores more
45%
level
24%
Pénzügyőr scores more
31%

Csep-Gól at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Csep-Gól will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Csep-Gól vs Pénzügyőr

Csep-Gól and Pénzügyőr drew 1-1 in NB III - Southeast on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Béke téri Stadion in Budapest.