Csep-Gól 2–1 Dabas: Result & Stats

Csep-Gól

FT

2 – 1

Dabas

8/7/2024

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 2Béke téri Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Csep-Gól39%

×Draw24%

Dabas36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Csep-GólExpected goals in this matchDabas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.47

Csep-Gól

1.54

Dabas

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

1.53

creates per match

1.47

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Csep-Gól

1.53

Dabas

1.47

allows per match

Csep-Gól

1.47

Dabas

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Csep-Gól+0.00on par

Dabas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csep-Gól ↓

Dabas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Csep-Gól or draw

64%

Csep-Gól or Dabas

76%

Draw or Dabas

61%

Winning margin

Csep-Gól wins by 2+

19%

Dabas wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Csep-Gól 1+ goals

79%

Csep-Gól 2+ goals

45%

Csep-Gól 3+ goals

20%

Dabas 1+ goals

77%

Dabas 2+ goals

43%

Dabas 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Csep-Gól (draw refunded)

52%

Dabas (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csep-Gól at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Dabas away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csep-Gól attack 1.53 + Dabas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.54

Dabas attack 1.47 + Csep-Gól defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Csep-Gól scores more

39%

level

24%

Dabas scores more

36%

Csep-Gól at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Csep-Gól will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff