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Csep-Gól vs BKV Előre — NB III - Southeast 2023

Csep-Gól
Csep-Gól
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
BKV Előre
BKV Előre
4/6/2025NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 23Béke téri Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Csep-Gól43%
×Draw24%
BKV Előre34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csep-Gól
1.68
BKV Előre
1.47

Csep-Gól creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Csep-Gól
1.53
BKV Előre
1.47

allows per match

Csep-Gól
1.47
BKV Előre
1.82

finishing

Csep-Gól+0.00on par
BKV Előre+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csep-Gól ↓

BKV Előre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Csep-Gól or draw
66%
Csep-Gól or BKV Előre
76%
Draw or BKV Előre
57%

Winning margin

Csep-Gól wins by 2+
22%
BKV Előre wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Csep-Gól 1+ goals
81%
Csep-Gól 2+ goals
50%
Csep-Gól 3+ goals
24%
BKV Előre 1+ goals
77%
BKV Előre 2+ goals
43%
BKV Előre 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Csep-Gól (draw refunded)
56%
BKV Előre (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csep-Gól at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

BKV Előre away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csep-Gól attack 1.53 + BKV Előre defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.68

BKV Előre attack 1.47 + Csep-Gól defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Csep-Gól scores more
43%
level
24%
BKV Előre scores more
34%

Csep-Gól at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Csep-Gól will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Csep-Gól vs BKV Előre

Csep-Gól beat BKV Előre 3-1 in NB III - Southeast on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Béke téri Stadion in Budapest.