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CSA vs Tombense — Serie B 2026

CSA
CSA
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tombense
Tombense
Lucas Barcelos 40'
Elton 36'
9/26/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 31Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

CSA55%
×Draw26%
Tombense19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSA
1.52
Tombense
0.77

CSA creates 97% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 38 away

creates per match

CSA
1.39
Tombense
0.74

allows per match

CSA
0.80
Tombense
1.66

finishing

CSA+0.00on par
Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Tombense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CSA or draw
81%
CSA or Tombense
74%
Draw or Tombense
45%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+
29%
Tombense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals
78%
CSA 2+ goals
45%
CSA 3+ goals
20%
Tombense 1+ goals
54%
Tombense 2+ goals
18%
Tombense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)
74%
Tombense (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.80 · 76 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.39 + Tombense defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tombense attack 0.74 + CSA defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

CSA scores more
55%
level
26%
Tombense scores more
19%

CSA at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
LucãoCSACSA · D
7.7

Match Events

36'
Elton↳ Diego Renan
40'
Lucas Barcelos
46'
Manoel← Emerson Barbosa
54'
Edson← Lucas Barcelos
62'
Lucas Marques
63'
Lourenço← Yann Rolim
63'
Rogério← Osvaldo
63'
Frizzo← Ciel
63'
Keké← Nenê Bonilha
72'
Caíque← Kleiton
79'
Diego Ferreira← David
81'
Rodrigo Rodrigues← Elton
81'
Giva← Gabriel
86'
Joseph

Possession

44%CSA

Shots

19CSA

Pass accuracy

50%CSA

Statistics

CSATombense
Overview
44%Possession56%
19Total Shots11
3Corners2
17Fouls10
Shots
19Total Shots11
4On Target1
10Off Target6
5Blocked4
14Inside Box4
5Outside Box7
Passing
44%Possession56%
348Total Passes449
277Accurate Passes356
80%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Serie B: CSA 2–0 Tombense

CSA beat Tombense 2-0 in Serie B on September 26, 2022.

Goals: Elton (36'), Lucas Barcelos (40').

Tombense controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.